Nv30 delayed until 2003---

[babystinky]

Well I am hearing "not untill spring"

Anyone else hearing anything???




http://gamespot.com/gamespot/stories/news/0,10870,2895705,00.html




GeForce5 delayed



Graphics chip leader Nvidia is still expected to unveil the fastest PC graphics processor at the Comdex trade show next month, but cards won't be readily available until 2003.

Nvidia was expected to have its NV30 processor, to be sold as the GeForce5, on the market by now. But problems stemming from shifting to a new chipmaking process have bumped back the chip by several months. Analysts now expect Nvidia to have a handful of new chips on the market by Christmas, but volume shipments won't begin until early next year.
Rival ATI Technologies, meanwhile, has been courting PC hot-rodders for several months with its Radeon 9700 processor and has just announced the less expensive Radeon 9500 family of cards. By the time the new Nvidia chip is widely available, many people will likely have already made the switch to ATI, analysts say.

"Basically, they missed the cycle," Hans Mosesmann, a Prudential Securities analyst, said of Nvidia. "Really [the NV30] is a fall product that's now been pushed out, for all intents and purposes, to the spring."

By David Becker, News.com [POSTED: 10/24/02 - 02:07 pm pdt]

[opus512]

Ouchies, miss the Christmas season.

Got no sympathy for them to find out how it feels to miss a shipping fate though, heh.

Ah well, hopefully it will be good when it does come out then.

Gives ATI that much more time to imptove their drivers though, heh.

[babystinky]

Missing product cycles..

Sounds to me like a little "Voodoo" at work:evil:

[Blighter]

Yeh, missing a cycle was what started the fall of 3dfx. I hope it starts the fall for nvidia as well.

[EvilEngine]

Does coming out late DEC- early Jan really THAT bad to you guys?
It doesnt bother me one bit, as long as the card has no hardware bugs and runs everything well. The way everyone is knocking the January release is like it wont be out for 10 yrs or something.
So its late, who cares. At least it will be out.

[John Reynolds]

Originally posted by Blighter
Yeh, missing a cycle was what started the fall of 3dfx. I hope it starts the fall for nvidia as well.

Why? You want a graphics market with only one major player? I certainly don't.

[Kermit]

Originally posted by EvilEngine
Does coming out late DEC- early Jan really THAT bad to you guys?
It doesnt bother me one bit, as long as the card has no hardware bugs and runs everything well. The way everyone is knocking the January release is like it wont be out for 10 yrs or something.
So its late, who cares. At least it will be out.

I don't think that's the point.

I think the point is Nvidia is missing a HUGE time of year. Christmas would be a great time for kids to ask for that new videocard. Well... looks like they will be asking for ATI this year.

Once that switch is made... Nvidia lost those customers until at least the next product. AND... chances are, if the person ends up liking the ATI card, they may never go back.

The point is... Nvidia has the potential to lose a lot of customers here.

Now, I don't necessarily want to see Nvidia go under... like a lot of people would. I am actually kinda dissapointed in this. As much as I hate Nvidia, I like competition. The reason why the 9700 ownz so much is cause ATI had to outdo Nvidia. When it was just Nvidia... for about that 6 months to a year after 3dfx went under... all we got was delayed shit, and it was WAY overpriced.

Competition is great for us!

And... well... nvidia is going to eat it hard on this one. They will most likely end up not making a TON of money on this product cycle.

[scottg26]

Originally posted by Blighter
Yeh, missing a cycle was what started the fall of 3dfx. I hope it starts the fall for nvidia as well.


well aint that like Sandoval calling the Taelons bad....

[Wedge]

Originally posted by Blighter
Yeh, missing a cycle was what started the fall of 3dfx. I hope it starts the fall for nvidia as well.


Never, if nVidia never put the pressure on ATi with the Geforce 4 then we wouldn't have seen the 9700 Pro in its current state, that and I like the fact that while the 9700 Pro started out at $400 it was found online not two weeks after its launch for $320. The sooner the NV30 is on the market the sooner I can get my hands on a DDR-II based 9700 Pro.

[Blighter]

But but but... nVidia KILLED DE 3dFX J00!!!!!!!!

IT MUST DIEE!!1111111111

[Blighter]

Originally posted by EvilEngine
Does coming out late DEC- early Jan really THAT bad to you guys?
It doesnt bother me one bit, as long as the card has no hardware bugs and runs everything well. The way everyone is knocking the January release is like it wont be out for 10 yrs or something.
So its late, who cares. At least it will be out.

Yea well, missing out a product cycles is bad thing, whether it comes out late or not. That's exactly what happened with v5. They got it out late and nvidia released gf2 that outperformed it. Same could happen now if ATI get's r350 or whatever revised version of r300 out right after nv30. Ati has no pressure now that it's the fastest around and concentrate on a nv30 killer while nvidia is concentrating on a r300 killer.

[babystinky]

ATI may experience its own delay when they go to the process that Nvidia is doing with their chip. Who knows? ATI is wathching carefully to see just how Nvidia is running into the probs.

Right now it is better that both companies survive, yet I feel good to see someone else with the speed crown other then Nvidia.

[EvilEngine]

Originally posted by Blighter


Yea well, missing out a product cycles is bad thing, whether it comes out late or not. That's exactly what happened with v5. They got it out late and nvidia released gf2 that outperformed it. Same could happen now if ATI get's r350 or whatever revised version of r300 out right after nv30. Ati has no pressure now that it's the fastest around and concentrate on a nv30 killer while nvidia is concentrating on a r300 killer.

V5 came out late and how many people bought it and still live by it?
I don't think a "missed" product cycle will hurt a company like Nvidia. How much money in the bank did 3DFX have after the Voodoo5 was released late? NV has the funds to get through this, as long as the .13 proccess is near flawless, they can expand on this die throughout the next year with new products that will be back on schedule. Why everyone is getting thier panties in a bunch makes no sense at all to me.

[Blighter]

Originally posted by EvilEngine
Why everyone is getting thier panties in a bunch makes no sense at all to me.

Because it's fun.

[Coop 1.04]

First of all comparing 3dfx to Nvidia is incorrect. 3dfx was late for an entire YEAR. Not a couple of months. Second most people who buy high end cards buy them in early spring, so the delay isn't crippling. Finally unless the r350 has an extra texture engine per pipeline or is capable of dual chip operation, It can't be that much better than the NV30.

[Blighter]

Originally posted by Coop 1.04
Second most people who buy high end cards buy them in early spring, so the delay isn't crippling.

What about the first most people? :) (jk)
How do you know that? I'd say most people buy high end cards in the fall/xmas.

Finally unless the r350 has an extra texture engine per pipeline or is capable of dual chip operation, It can't be that much better than the NV30. [/B]


So you'd think ;)

[opus512]

Originally posted by John Reynolds


Why? You want a graphics market with only one major player? I certainly don't.

I don't think it would stay single player for long, though, it sure didn't after 3dfx went under. Everyone thought nVidia was going to own the market, especialy after buying the 3dfx tech, and look what ATI did all on their own?

[Ailuros]

Ahhhhh another ARMCHAIR ANALYSIS :D

a) Missing a product cycle is relative; if you mean that they´ve missed their 6 month refresh product cycle yes. In any other case it´s still one real generation per year.

b) V5 5500 was delayed 9 months the way I recall it. If it doesn´t make you feel any better early last year´s roadmap had NV30 somewhere around spring 2002. How bad are you guys maths.

c) If you need an upgrade and want an absolute high end card NOW, go out and fetch yourself a Radeon9700. You need more? You are freakier than I thought. :D

j/k

d) NVIDIA isn´t going anywhere. Worst case scenarion the market gets restructured and the recent 60-40% balance in favour of NV, will slowly switch to a 50-50 or even 40-60% balance. What it´s to you anyway? Good news is that you´ll have more frequent and even better price/performance rations as to be found in Ti4200/9500PRO´s getting shot at in an even faster frequency than ever before.

Ailuros Armchair logging out :D

[opus512]

Originally posted by EvilEngine

How much money in the bank did 3DFX have after the Voodoo5 was released late?

Someone correct me if I'm wrong, but far as I remember they had a shitload of money in the back. Not as much as nVidia has now, but still a lot.

Nah, it's perception more then anything. nVidia missed it's vaunted six month product cycle.

Won't kill them, not even close, 3dfx did much more the kill themselves then just miss a product cycle, but it sure as hell didn't help.

[Ailuros]

As for the NV30´s architecture/efficiency/performance:

if you don´t have any convicible information on the above, you really should hold back from making any predictions or lucky guestimates.

For the record neither memory clock frequency nor bus width can be a determining factor, in fact extend that to all of the on paper specifications.

[Ailuros]

Someone correct me if I'm wrong, but far as I remember they had a shitload of money in the back. Not as much as nVidia has now, but still a lot.

If you can deposit depth, then they had quite over 100M "in the bank".

[Mole]

Missed product cycle?? Okay, it's just one... But what if ATi makes an NV30 killer, and when the NV30 comes out, it falls short? I'm not hoping for Nvidia to fail, but I remember hearing something about 3dfx being cursed...

[Ailuros]

Originally posted by Mole
Missed product cycle?? Okay, it's just one... But what if ATi makes an NV30 killer, and when the NV30 comes out, it falls short? I'm not hoping for Nvidia to fail, but I remember hearing something about 3dfx being cursed...

So how do you know that the NV30 is faster than the 9700 in the first place? See how absurd that is?

By the way companies don´t have a buttload of cards up their sleeves to release whenever they want to. For every generation they have a high end card and scale from that downwards or upwards with a simple speed bin or a few minor modifications.

[Apoch003]

I'm still under the impression that EVERYONE is watching Nvidia right now to learn about the .13micron process. ATi, Matrox..all of them are hoping for it's success because then they too, can go smaller, cooler, and faster.
It makes no difference that Nvidia skipped a cycle. As much as I like ATi, I know what they're main focus is right now. To learn as much about the .13 process as they can, and let someone else work out the bugs.

[babystinky]

I agree with Apoch on this.

ATI can only benefit from seeing exactly where Nvidia is having problems, with the process. IF Nvidia gets their product out in the spring, ATI better have learned from the Mistakes that Nvidia has made or they themselves will fall behind.

[Ailuros]

Originally posted by Apoch003
I'm still under the impression that EVERYONE is watching Nvidia right now to learn about the .13micron process. ATi, Matrox..all of them are hoping for it's success because then they too, can go smaller, cooler, and faster.
It makes no difference that Nvidia skipped a cycle. As much as I like ATi, I know what they're main focus is right now. To learn as much about the .13 process as they can, and let someone else work out the bugs.

True.

[Bill]

Ah, that's a shame, but they'll be okay. For now, we'll all have to suffer with our 9700s and ti4600s :)

[SirPauly]

I think nVidia has built up enough cash and market share to survive a small delay but this small delay has tarnished nVidia's incredible, stronghold-like image they had on so many.

If the nV-30 is only a 15 to 25 percent over-all speed advantage....ATI still has a solid advantage over-all due to the fact that the product was out there for some time and no doubt in my mind ATI is not standing still.

The key is the next product from ATI and when it is offered. I wouldn't be surprised to see ATI stay one generation ahead of nVidia in the future to gain valuable market share and try to keep it.

[Perpetualis]

The market is constantly changing with every descision an IHV makes. It will be interesting to see long term how well nvidias faith in early .13um R&D pays off in comparison to ati's present reliance on .15um

[Ailuros]

Pauly,

Irrelevant to the NV30's final performance (equal/faster by a bit/faster by quite some etc.), the keypoints lie rather what NV is planning to do in the budget and mainstream market.

Simple example would be to die shrink NV28, clock a bit higher and use it as the budget lineup. The manufacturing process' immaturity must have screwed up more than one of their plans ;)

In any case wether ATI manages to stay one generation ahead, depends a lot on the lifespan the NV30 will have. It's delay does not necessarily mean that followup generations get delayed too, or the roadmap shifted, albeit it doesn't make much sense from a marketing point to release every other quarter a high end product, but we'll see.

[Babel-17]

No new products on store shelves by Christmas could spell a spot of bother for nVidia. If ATI rolls out a pile of product based on the R300 for the holidays it could cause a lot of upgrading by holdouts and then the subsequent dilemna for nVidia that those folks upgrade cycles will now coincide with ATI's release dates.

Computer manufacturers will be sniffing the breeze ..... the competition could get bloody between ATI and nVidia for that lucrative market. There's certainly a window of opportunity here for ATI. Lol, if I was CEO I'd be studying the nVidia playbook and readying my marketing weasels. :) :) :)


A lot of ground on several fronts could be gained. I suspect nVidia will move heaven and earth to get some kind of actual release by Christmas, anything to just cause people to hesitate before purchasing ATI and to shore up their eroding aura of being top dog.

Hehehe, vicious line of work they're in, probably nearly as bad as the fashion industry. :)

[SirPauly]

The key is the mainstream market and the low-end TNT2 and GeForce2 MX chips were frigg'n cash-cows for nVidia but the name brand recognition from the high-end products help fuel the low-end products as well.

Trickle down marketing. Everytime GeForce is offered or nVidia is offered helps sell every single product with these names.

It must be good....it's a GeForce.

It must be fast.....it says nVidia.

ATI needed to do this in the worse way..... the positive press created by the hype of the 9700 Pro will help fuel sales of the rest of the 9XXX series of products and ATI products in general to gain precious market share.

Most of your revenue dollars are created by the low to mid mainstream market but you still receive substantial revenues and margins from the enthusiast market and shouldn't be ignored. All ATI is really doing is modeling themselves in many respects like nVidia but being more upfront and more open.

Just think what ATI has done...... No one ever discussed ATI as a serious gaming product and yet ATI is now constantly raised and discussed -- and even the most hard-core nVidia gamer even considers them a viable choice.

Even the developing angle; they're working their tails off now and understand how important it is for gaming and perception and why ATI's PR was involved with their Austin Powers' Mojo theme.

[Ailuros]

That's not too far away from what I said Pauly.

What if NV31 is quite a bit faster than the 9500's ?

(Because if they speed bin the NV28's for budget cards the 9000's are lost).

The worst case scenario is - if there aren't any other screwups at NV - that they will have almost equal market share, which will make competition even more critical for mainstream offerings, since products with high price/performance rations will shuffle out from both sides with a higher frequency and possibly even cheaper (see current Ti4200/9500 prices).

I doubt NV intends to roll over and die all of the sudden. Loosing a battle =! loosing the war :)

[Ailuros]

Babel,

It's impressive how ATI managed with the R300 to get more attention than ever before around here, in a market that was mostly dominated by GeForces.

There will be definitely a large shift towards ATI, with the R300 as the top tier dog pulling the wagon.

[Babel-17]

Yup, the fact that UT2k3 includes the option to choose benchmarks that stress the videocard doesn't hurt the way the R9700 is perceived. Too many benches are cpu limited and some reviews don't include the results of enabling aa and aniso .... not to mention I've yet to read one (from the usual suspects, not Beyond3D etc.) that remembers to mention that nVidia's aa at the 4x level is ordered grid.

I wish I had the link .... I heard mention of one review today that is the epitomy of "damning with faint praise". Seems the R9700 isn't a good choice because it's too powerful for todays games and cpu's .... it's high performance is a frivolous luxury in other words, lol. Yeah, let's just nod our heads at that and quitly tiptoe away from that fellow, hehehe. :)

[Bah!]

Why are so many people harping on the Christmas release date?

Most people dont get video cards as Christmas presents, and thats an even truer statment when it comes to the top of the line cards.

I dont know about where you live, but around here the people who buy top end video cards do so for themselves. Very rarely do parents ect. but $400 video cards for their kids, they usually get mid to low end stuff.

The only bad thing about not having a December release is the time between launches, not the fact its Christmas.

Add this to the fact that high end video card sales account for like 5% of total video sales, and that the demand for Geforce 4's is exceeding demand and i dont see any big damage being done to Nvidia. It will take at least 2 or 3 more good cards from ATI to bump Nvidia off the throne. If you think mainstream customers are gonna jump ship just because the 9700 your crazy, for most people a $300-400 dollar video card is not possible.

[Babel-17]

I see your point but kids get cash for Christmas and adults get bonuses and/or treat themselves.

Christmas also marks the years end. Will 2002 be the year nVidia has the second fastest gaming card? Hehe, a silly question but as has been noted some people base the buying decision of a lower tier card based on which vendor has the fastest card. Over time such perceptions could affect the way game developers support specific card features and/or go out of their way to ensure optimal performance.

I know I'm exaggerating the implications a bit but that's just my method to get to what will be the motivating forces for the way we'll see future products being introduced. ;)

[Ailuros]

Xmas is a good season for sales. And ATI will most probably see a healthy increase in it's sales.

But:

a) There are not just a few waiting for the mythical NV30's release.

b) Assuming world wide availability kicks in after January 03', that's a 4-5 month intermediate, same bridge for the mainstream market.

c) The GF4Ti's sold and are selling well. Most of them will not likely upgrade before a year at least has passed.

etc etc.

I'm not saying that NV's sales won't get damaged (and not by just a small/insignificant margin), but in no way have they YET lost the ballgame. ATI needs to keep the aggressive cycle they started up and do a lot more homework what their drivers concerns; if the trend continues and NV gets stuck in a similar situation they are right now, then yes NV will find itself in a very bad situation.

Any other case they'll do their best (or worst from a PR standpoint ROFL) to regain the shtupid performance crown ;)